Floor 6: The Model
Reality Lab
Reality Lab gives 200 simulated traders the same rules: the same win rate, the same payoff and the same number of trades. You predict one number about the crowd, then run it and watch the accounts spread apart. It teaches what variance alone does to identical traders: losing streaks, drawdowns and very different endings.
Free, with a verified email address. An account saves your progress, and floors and tiers open as you level up.
What it teaches
What variance does to identical traders. The honesty game.
- Identical traders with an identical model get different results from the order of wins and losses alone.
- Losing streaks that feel impossible are ordinary over enough trades.
- A high win rate is not an edge if the losers cost more than the winners pay.
- Why a short record, good or bad, says little. See does SMC work.
How a round plays
- An experiment states its rules: win rate, what a winner pays, what a loser costs and how many trades each trader takes.
- Choose how much of the account you would risk per trade with that edge. It is not graded: it is recorded as your risk appetite and shown back to you.
- Predict one number: how many of the 200 end below their start, how long the typical losing streak gets, or how deep the typical drawdown goes.
- Run it. All 200 accounts draw at once, next to what probability theory says should happen and what it means at the risk you chose.
- A run is five experiments and takes about five minutes.
How it is graded
There is no chart to mark. You are scored on how close your prediction comes to what the 200 simulated traders did. The edge in each experiment is an assumption given to you, with independent trades and no costs, not a property of any real method.
The honest note
This is the honesty game. Even with an edge handed to every trader, some of the 200 end badly. Most retail traders do not have a measured edge at all, and most lose money.