Institutional tier
The Skeptic
The Skeptic is the final boss and the capstone of ForexLens. A simulated risk committee puts five objections to your model: sample size, survivorship, discretion, costs and regime change. Each comes with an exhibit of numbers. You stand on exactly what they show, or concede. It teaches defending a method honestly.
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What it teaches
Defending a model honestly, including where the evidence runs out.
- Sample size: a win rate means little without its sample and its interval.
- Survivorship and discretion: count everyone who started, and a rule is only a rule if a second person marks the chart the same way.
- Costs and regime change: expectancy is quoted after spread and slippage, and one good period is one period.
- The full case for and against in does SMC work.
How a round plays
- The committee states an objection and shows an exhibit. Read its numbers.
- Apply the committee standard printed under the exhibit. If the numbers pass it, stand on exactly what they show. If they do not, concede and say what would change that.
- Four replies are offered: stand, concede, claim more than the numbers show, or dodge the question.
- Overclaiming or deflecting costs you credibility. An honest concession is a good answer.
- A run is five objections and takes about four minutes.
How it is graded
Each reply is graded against the committee standard for that exhibit: stand when the numbers pass it, concede when they do not. Claiming more than the numbers show loses credibility, and so does dodging. The exhibits are generated for the game and nothing in them shows that any model works.
The honest note
The committee cannot be beaten by confidence. The realistic ending is a list of what you can show and what you cannot, which is where an honest trader starts.