In today’s live trading session, we discussed how our NZDUSD trade played out, this mornings US Unemployment claims and trade setups for the NFP release.
During yesterday’s session, we analyzed NZDUSD and determined a bearish bias for the pair. All that was required was a bearish 4hr closure below daily support. Right at the 5 PM market close, we were given the closure we wanted. Unfortunately, through the Japan and into the Australian session this trade was stopped out at -35 pips. Despite this, our bias for the pair remains bearish and a short could be taken sometime next week.
This morning, the US Unemployment claims came out worse than expected at 3.17 million claims. This led to some of the majors gaining back its losses against the US Dollar. This report could provide insight into tomorrow’s NFP result. One can reason that a higher amount of claims can be correlated to a higher unemployment rate. But, just how high? Currently the forecast for US Unemployment sits at 16%.
On the assumption of a 16% unemployment rate, we have found two long setups for GBPUSD and EURUSD. Now at the moment, both setups are far from ideal to enter. However, if these two pairs can make their way back to support, we may have outstanding upside potential if the bearish NFP forecasts are true.
Some weeks are slower than others, and this NFP week was definitely slow. The important thing is to stay disciplined and understand what the charts are telling you and not to project what you want to see. The Forex market isn’t going anywhere, and we will be here come next week. Besides our NZDUSD loss, this week has gone reasonably well. We still have 36 hours left to trade, so let’s make the best of it. As always, be safe and trade responsibly.
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