In Market news today, the GBP CPI came in better than forecasted, giving a notch of bullish sentiment to the ole’ Pound as CAD CPI came in neutral, which is still a positive sign. Despite this, our main outlook is very neutral today on the DXY and the majors. So scalpers get ready!
We have reached all of our DXY targets so far in the uptrend and are now neutral for the day. Looking back in time based on the equilibrium of a Fib retracement from the March 17, 2020 high of 103.019 to the Dec 21, 2020 low of 89.216, our equilibrium point of 50% falls at the 99.118 area, which has been our target so far. If the DXY continues to remain bullish we can see it hitting the 79% fib level price of 100.121 and the 88% fib level price of 101.446. To signify a reversal in this bullish trend we are watching for a breakout below the 94.948 to 94.903 range. In the short term, we are experiencing a small pullback and we still see an upside to the 96.402 – 96.433 range. Keep in mind however, our bias for the market is neutral, and we are holding off from entering any long term trades for now until we see some more volume. At this time scalp trading is the best strategy for the day.
EURUSD has hit our target of 1.13000 and is providing some stabilization at this area, the DXY is giving us another neutral position here and we will have to watch the D1 chart while we let price decide the direction. If DXY continues to go up we are looking at the 1.11692 area as the next target to bounce. However, given neutrality, we would sit on our hands for now unless you are up for some scalping only.
GBPUSD is still waiting for the break in market structure to happen.
With NZDUSD, on Monday, when we broke market structure we pointed out the 0.69818 level and price should be sent there, which has now occurred. Right now it is unclear what price wants to do here as well. The right thing to do now is to wait for the Order Block of the 0.69811 – 0.68800 on the Weekly time frame will be used by institutions to change price direction. We will watch for it to be filled on the 4H timeframe, and look for price to start going up to 0.72188 levels.
With USOIL we are still on course to hit the 78.76 – 78.23 range and are watching the continuation to the downside.
In Crypto, we opened a AVAX trade yesterday at $94 and we are currently sitting at profit right below the $105 area, a +11% move up and we continue to look for more upside. Seeing that AVAX is pumping while other parts of the crypto market is down could be a good sign that signifies the crypto bull run is not over yet. However, looking at BTC and ETH, we are at key levels where we need a pop to the upside very soon or else we may see further downside. Ideally we want to see ETH trade above $4400 and hold, and for BTC we want to see it stay above $60,000. For now, we have created a temporary bottom at $58,600 but if we take out this level then we will be headed lower, possibly to the $54,000 area.
We covered most of the minor pairs on the live session today and have some potential setups in the works. Please watch the live session here for more details.
Lots of FOMC activity this week to keep tabs on as they roll in, we will make sure to scan and report anything of active interest.
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